On Nick's advice I setup a job to log both wafltop and ps -c 1 once per minute - and we had a sustained sata0 disk busy from 5am-7am as reported by NMC.
First question I have from wafltop show is - what is the first row (sata0::file i/o) reporting ? What could be the source of these 28907 non-volume specific Read IOs?
Try doing a 'ps -c 1' or a wafltop show (double check the syntax) while you're getting the spike; those will probably help you narrow down the processes that are using your disks. Both are priv set advanced/diag commands.